Tuesday 13th June
GBP Claimant Count Change/Unemployment Rate - 7.00am (2am EST)
Forecast: 21.4K/4.0%
Tuesday May 16th
Forecast: 31.2K
Actual: 46.7K worse than expected
GBPJPY
The 6am H4 candle was already bearish with a little top wick, news candle made a small top wick and fell down to a M30 support where support was respected and candles retraced the move, continuing the bullish trend
Key Points
Higher number of people claiming unemployment than expected
Scenarios
Actual/Better than forecast - lower numbers = GJ Buys
Worse than forecast - higher numbers - GJ Sells
USD CPI y/y - 13.30pm (8.30am EST)
Forecast: 4.1%
Wednesday May 10th
Forecast: 5.0%
Actual: 4.9% worse than expected
XAUUSD
Gold ranged before the news and had a bullish breakout above previous daily highs when it was released
Key Points
First time CPI dropped below 5% in 2 years, incentive to pause further rate hike this month
Still above the central banks 2% target
Scenarios
Actual/Better than forecast - higher numbers = Gold Sells
Worse than forecast - lower numbers - Gold Buys
Wednesday 14th June
GBP GDP m/m - 7.00am (2am EST)
Forecast: 0.2%
Friday 12th May
Forecast: 0.0%
Actual: -0.3%
GBPJPY
Price was bullish, news was negative for GBP and spiked price down but the bullish trend continued
Key Points
Previous GBP GDP reading was weak and had fallen by 0.3%
Services sector output fell by 0.5% in March 2023, while production output grew by 0.7% and construction by 0.2%
Scenarios
Actual/Better than forecast - higher numbers = GJ Buys
Worse than forecast - lower numbers - GJ Sells
USD PPI m/m - 13.30pm (8.30am EST)
Forecast: -0.1%
Tuesday 11th May
Forecast: 0.3%
Actual - 0.2% worse than expected
XAUUSD
Short bullish push to make daily highs but price retraced and made its way down breaking previous lows
Key Points
Wholesale prices rose less than expected in April, inflation pressure is easing
Lowest reading since January 2021
Indication that prices a slowly lowering
Scenarios
Actual/Better than forecast - higher numbers = Gold Sells
Worse than forecast - lower numbers - Gold Buys
USD Federal Funds Rate - 19.00pm (14.00pm EST)
Forecast: 5.25% (No increase)
Wednesday May 3rd
Forecast: 5.25%
Actual: 5.25% as expected
XAUUSD
Gold initially pushed bullish before retracing closing weak bullish
Price continue bullish after forming support
Key Points
Interest Rates were raised by 0.25% as expected
FOMC Meeting indicated pause in future rate hikes
Thursday 15th June
USD Retail Sales m/m - 13.30pm
Forecast: -0.1%
Tuesday May 16th
Forecast: 0.8%
Actual: 0.4% worse than expected
XAUUSD
Gold pushed bullish on the bad numbers but the bearish trend continued from NY open
Key Points
US retail sales grew at a slower pace than expected
Increases in services spending, decline in goods spending y/y
Scenarios
Actual/Better than forecast - higher numbers = Gold Sells
Worse than forecast - lower numbers - Gold Buys
USD Empire State Manufacturing Index - 13.30pm
Forecast:-14.5
Monday 15th May
Forecast: -3.7
Actual: -31.8 worse than expected
XAUUSD
Gold pushed up from support and continued up to the top of the range
Key Points
Dropped 42.6 points from previous month
Readings below zero indicate contraction
Sharp fall in business activity after significant rise last month
Scenarios
Actual/Better than forecast - higher numbers + 0.0 = Gold Sells
Worse than forecast - lower numbers + -0.0 - Gold Buys
Friday 16th June
USD Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment - 15.00pm
Forecast: 60.2
Friday 12th May
Forecast: 63.0
Actual: 57.7 worse than expected
XAUUSD
Key Points
Bad numbers but over 50.0 is still good for currency
Consumer confidence decreased to weakest since Nov 22
Scenarios
Actual/Better than forecast - higher numbers = Gold Sells
Worse than forecast - lower numbers - Gold Buys
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