A breakdown of monthly and cyclical high impact fundamental news releases from US data:-
Why the news is important
How the data is collected
The affect it has on the US economic outlook
How the news can impact XAUUSD
Monetary Policy
What is the news?
Federal Open Market Committee Statement + Federal Funds Rate(FOMC) -
Determines the interest rates on loans and advances to commercials banks and depository institutions. FOMC members vote on where the next rate will be set
The statement features commentary about economic outlooks and what influenced their votes
When does it occur?
5 - 8 week intervals - 8 times a year
Why is it important?
Interest rates are changed in order to manage inflation. Generally interest rates are increased to slow down the economy and higher rates boost the value of the US Dollar - borrowing becomes more expensive and prices are higher
Interest rates are decreased to encourage economic growth - borrowing is cheaper and there is less demand for the US Dollar
Impact
Increased Interest Rates (Rake hikes) = Bullish USD
Decreased Interest Rates (Rate cuts) = Bullish Gold
In 2022 the USD has the most aggressive Interest Rates hike in 25 years with rates rising from 0.5% to 5.25% in 2023
Consumer Data
What is the news?
USD Consumer Price Index (CPI) - measures the change in price of goods and services purchased by consumers
CPI is calculated by averaging price changes for each item in a predetermined basket of consumer goods - food, energy, medical services and comparing it to the previous month
When does it occur?
Monthly - about 16 days after the month ends
Why is it important?
CPI influences central bank monetary policy as its measures inflation. Rising prices and high inflation leads central banks to raise interest rates in order to slow down the economy.
Impact
High CPI = High Interest Rates which is bullish for DXY + bearish for XAU
Low CPI = Lower Interest Rates which is bearish for DXY+ bullish for XAU
Bullish for USD = Actual + Greater than Forecast
Bullish for Gold = Worse then Forecast
*USD CPI target rate is 2% and monetary policies are currently in place to reduce the inflation rate* June 2023
What is the news?
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) - Advance, Preliminary and Final
measures the value of all the goods, services and structures produced with the US in a specific time period
Advance GDP tends to have the most impact as its the first one released
When does it occur?
Advanced - Quarterly - 30 days after the quarter ends
Preliminary - Quarterly - 60 days after the quarter ends
Final -Quarterly - 85 days after the quarter ends
Why is it important?
GDP indicates how well the US economy is growing or decreasing. High GDP could lead to inflation and low GDP could trigger a recession
Impact
High readings /Positive = Bullish USD
Low readings/Negative = Bullish Gold
What is the news?
Producer Price Index (PPI) - measures the average change in price of commodities sold for personal consumption, capital investment, government and export - surveyed monthly
When does it occur?
Monthly - around 13 days after the end of the month
Why is it important?
Its one of the indicators of commodity inflation. Consumers pay higher costs when producers charge more for their goods and services
Impact
High readings = Bullish USD
Low readings = Bullish Gold
What is the news?
Retail Sales - measures the total value of sales from retail stores and the change in percentage from the previous month
When does it occur?
Monthly - around 16 days after the month ends
Why is it important?
Retail sales is a indicator of the trend in consumer spending which in turn impacts the GDP and the economic outlook. Strong retail numbers generally boost the USD
Impact
High readings = Bullish USD
Low readings = Bullish Gold
What is the news?
University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (MCSI) - A survey of around 500 consumers that gauges whether or not they are willing to spend money based on current and future economic conditions.
When does it occur?
Monthly - middle of the month
Why is it important?
It is an indicator of consumer spending and attitudes towards financial and income situations. Its provides an outlook on economic activities
Impact
High readings = Bullish USD
Low readings = Bullish Gold
What is the news?
CB Consumer confidence - Similarly to MSCI - this is another consumer survey of 3000 households where they rate the level of confidence in relation to economic activity which include business conditions + labour activity
When does it occur?
Monthly - last Tuesday of the month
Why is it important?
This survey is an indication of the level of confidence that consumers have in economic activity. Higher levels of confidence drive economic expansion and lower levels drive economic downturns.
Impact
High readings = Bullish USD
Low readings = Bullish Gold
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